Lilly’s Trulicity CVOT has experts optimistic based on past results but hesitant since not all prior GLP-1 CVOTs have shown benefit

05 May 2018

Eli Lilly’s (NYSE:LLY) Trulicity (dulaglutide) for type 2 diabetes (T2D) has three experts cautiously optimistic over its potential to show benefit in its cardiovascular outcome trial (CVOT) while one declined to note expectations. Experts agreed that uncertainty prevails given the variation in past CVOT results for similar agents and the lack of clarity over the MOA for CV benefit.

Nonetheless, several pointed out Trulicity’s demonstrated effect on HbA1c and weight as well as its similarity to agents that have already shown benefit provides potential for its CVOT trial, dubbed REWIND (NCT01394952).

Additionally, while the three experts agreed with an analyst report that REWIND’s longer follow-up duration than Novo Nordisk's (CPH:NOVO-B) successful LEADER trial for Victoza (liraglutide) boosts it chances of success but its healthier trial population could be risky, one of the experts also noted that the latter point would mean a positive REWIND trial would mean a larger market for Trulicity.

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